Neutral
0.67%
When short-term Treasury yields exceed long-term ones (an inverted curve), it has been the most reliable recession warning in modern US history — every recession since the 1960s was preceded by one, typically 6 to 18 months ahead. An inversion reflects bond investors collectively betting the Fed will need to cut rates in response to a slowing economy. If you watch only one leading indicator, this is the standard choice.