Sahm Rule

The Sahm Rule is one of the most reliable real-time recession markers we have. When it triggers (the 3-month unemployment average rises 0.5 points above its 12-month low), a recession is already underway — not a forecast, but a coincident confirmation that's caught every US recession since 1960 with a 2-3 month lag versus the typical 6-12 month lag on official NBER declarations. It's the signal that tells you the downturn everyone's been debating is, in fact, here.