FRED Recession Risk

This card combines two of the most-watched recession probability series so you can see the leading and the coincident signal side-by-side. The NY Fed overlay (yield-curve probit) is the forward-looking line — when it climbs above 30%, a recession has historically arrived within 12 months. The primary Chauvet-Piger line is the coincident confirmation — it stays near zero during expansions and snaps to 80%+ once a recession is underway, with NBER's official call usually following months later. Practical use: watch the overlay for early warnings (time to stress-test emergency funds, reassess job risk, dial down cyclical exposure), and watch the primary for confirmation that the slowdown is no longer a forecast. When both lines are quiet, the cycle is calm. When the overlay rises but the primary stays low, you're in the warning window. When both are elevated, you're in the recession.